Charlie Wear's Notes

Going on record with a political prediction…

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I don’t usually discuss politics in any way, either in Next-Wave or on my journal. I find that like religion, political discussions can be very divisive. However, I want to go on record with a political prediction, just so I can look back and say I told you so 11 months or so from now! 🙂 Here we go:

1. I predict that Barack Obama will not be the next president of the United States.

2. I predict that the next president of the United States will not be a Republican.

3. I predict that the Republican nominee will not be a Mormon.

Here are my reasons:

Cultural change comes slow and in an incremental way. For Barack Obama to be the next president we will have to overcome a number of historical firsts. First freshman Senator to be elected President. in the post-television era (read 1950 to present). First black man to be elected President. It is more likely that we will elect the first woman president, than the first black president.

In times of slow economic growth or recession, the party in power nearly always loses the presidency. It is pretty clear that 2008 is going to be a very difficult year economically. The Republicans have had eight years to address these issues and they are not finishing well, at least that will be the perception.

Check back with me on Thanksgiving Day and we will see how I did.

What Do You Think?

  1. Bob Cornwall Avatar
    Bob Cornwall

    I’m assuming you saw the results of the Iowa caucuses and the polling on New Hampshire. You may be right — Hillary could be the next President and that there are too many firsts for Obama to overcome — but in a year when change is in the air — not incremental change, but radical change — I think the surprising will be the norm!

    Reply
  2. Charlie Wear Avatar
    Charlie Wear

    You are right Bob, I did see the results of the Iowa Caucus. I think there are some very well-spoken candidates. Being well-spoken is a requirement in the age of video. Let’s take a look at the top candidates:

    Democratic:
    1. Barack Obama
    2. Hilary Clinton
    3. John Edwards
    4. Bill Richardson

    Republican:
    1. Mitt Romney
    2. Mike Huckabee
    3. John McCain
    4. Fred Thompson
    5. Rudy Gulliani

    They all have appeared on television plenty. Should be interesting how this sorts out. Let me alter my original prediction slightly. If Mr. Obama is nominated by the Democrats and either Gulliani or Huckabee are nominated by the Republicans, the Republicans might hold the White House by a narrow margin.

    Reply
  3. Charlie Wear’s Notes » Political predictions

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